Natural Gas and Europe

At a chance moment yesterday evening, I caught my favorite newsperson, Katie Couric, pronouncing that President Obama's term in office would be defined by his success in getting the economy back on track. As you might guess, I view the connection between the word, newsperson, and the person, Katie Couric, with a smile. She may well be right however, she has good writers after all. But I remember how George Bush's term in office would be defined by "Compassionate Conservatism".

I think that President Obama might spend much of his time in office dealing with issues outside domestic economy recovery however. The world is becoming a very scary place. Large scale economic upheaval, such as we are experiencing now, always causes political upheaval. Would Barack Obama have been elected if the Dow was still at 14,000? And we are a very stable country. As a case in point, our old friends the Russians have shut off the supply of natural gas to the Ukraine. Imagine if you will, that your supply of natural gas was cut off in the middle of the winter. Europe is a cold place in winter.

The Ukraine, a part of the Soviet Union less than 20 years ago, borders Russia and the European Community. It is trying to become a part of the European Union, with excellent prospects of that happening. That is until this summer and Russia's invasion of Georgia, a sister to the Ukraine. Now Europe, and NATO (the US), are faced with a Russia that is drawing lines in the sand. And Russia is using tanks to draw those lines.

I think that it is a cold winter indeed in Europe's capitals, especially in those rooms in which responsible adults are meeting. They know that Europe has sheltered behind the US military presence in the world while their own forces have become weak to the point of non-existence. They know that the presence of the US military has allowed them to indulge elements of their populations in "feel good" posturing about the realities of power politics. Their populations now believe in peace at any price and view their protector (the US) as the world's villain. Their populations are rapidly aging, their welfare costs rising, their economies weakening and now they are faced with an aggressive resurgent Russia. Their social fabric continues to fray under the burden of large unassimilated Muslim immigrant populations. They have no recourse but to smile and accept Russian extortion.

Yet the political unity of the European Union is weak. Under the strain of Russian aggression, what will happen? Will the French or German public see any necessity to defend Poland? What about the Ukraine? Where is NATO in all this? I don't think the US public wants to be engaged in European confrontations.

The Ukraine is dependent on Russia for energy. But the pipeline that carries Russian gas to the Ukraine also carries natural gas into Europe. It is a fact that pipelines flow in both directions. LNG landed in Europe can flow gas back into the Ukraine. It would only take some money and time to provide the Ukraine and Eastern Europe with alternative gas supplies. But doing so could incur the wrath of Russia. Those tanks again.

It will be interesting to see what happens. In the entire span of recorded history, Europe has not been a peaceful place. There is no reason to think that its future will be any different.